Added Value

Ok, I’ve spent the past half-year creating an analytics method that I’ve been sharing on Instagram (@minethatdata). I call the methodology “Added Value”.

The goal of “Added Value” is to demonstrate the contribution each play generates to the final score. If a team loses 11-7 / 11-7, there will be an approximate 4 points of “Added Value” going to the winning team, with an approximate -4 points going to the losing team. The methodology then parses added value among the four players, based on the outcome of returns of serve (holding on returns of serve is good and adds value), the outcome of third shots (scoring after attempting a third shot is good and adds value), and kitchen rallies won (winning kitchen rallies adds value).

Two weeks ago we watched as the Johns brothers lost to Phillip Locklear and Ben Newell. I performed an added value analysis based on the video published by Mr. Locklear’s wife: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8FvfVWIZVw&list=PLVRe0e4He8wTpFWcuvoABGPsK1BiK7Rv1&index=24

Here is the Added Value analysis.

Go to the bottom of the table (labeled Summary Stats). Each player’s “Added Value” is illustrated. Ben Johns was at -0.5 points of added value, Collin Johns was at -6.0 points of added value, Ben Newell was at +3.3 points of added value, and Phillip Locklear was at +3.2 points of added value.

We can see how each player arrived at that value. When Ben Johns returned serves, his team held 55% of the time (about average). When Ben Johns hit third shots, his team scored 43% of the time (just below the 45% average I see in PPA matches). Hence, he was close to no added value. Meanwhile, Collin’s team held on just 41% of his returns of serve (below the 55% average in PPA matches), and Collin’s team scored on just 23% of his third shots (below the 43% average in PPA matches).

The data indicates that Ben/Phillip contributed equally to success … both holding at above-average rates, both scoring off of thirds at above-average rates.

This style of analysis works even better with amateur players, FYI. It is a good methodology to demonstrate why a team wins a match. It’s taken more than a year to get to this point, and I’m confident this framework can be used to analyze matches going forward!