Ok, this afternoon’s film study charted when players won points. This time, I split out what happens on shots 1-3 vs. shots 4-6. If you miss a serve, if you miss your return of serve, or if you hit a 3rd shot drop into the net (or a drive out the back or into the net) you essentially cost yourself a point … technically, you cost yourself a half-point because maybe you “could” have won the point otherwise.
Let’s look at both of the APP Bronze Medal matches from this afternoon.
Look at the Women’s Match first. Stratman/Whitwell controlled the match by winning mid-length and long points. Todd/Barr performed well by scoring four additional points off of errors on 1st/2nd/3rd shots, and by winning points on the 4th/5th/6th shot.
I didn’t expect 13% of points to be determined via errors on the 1st/2nd/3rd shot. That’s 1/7th to 1/8th of all point determined by simple errors.
How about the Men’s Bronze Medal match? 17% of points were determined by errors on the 1st/2nd/3rd shot. 17%!!
Between the two matches, one out of every seven points is won by a team watching the opposition make a 1st/2nd/3rd shot error.
Thereafter, the Men’s Match was controlled by Barrientos/Young. They won more points on shots 4-6, they won a lot more points on shots 7+. They were able to grind out points. Outside of being -4 on point differential in shots 1/2/3, they were dominant.
The point of this charting exercise? We’re going to learn that the first six shots are important, for different reasons. Shots 1-3 are about setting up combinations without making errors. Shots 4-6 are about finishing off combinations. Shots 7-12 transition into dinking rallies, with the long ones finished off in 13+ shots.
Pickleball Analytics! 