The hypothesis I’m developing is that points are frequently decided in the first six shots, by putting constant pressure on the opposition. Once we get to the 7th shot, things devolve into a dinking rally, and then speed up at once the first attackable ball is offered.
I measured when points were won in four PPA matches from Orange County.
Warnick/Burrows vs. Wright/Newman
Frazer/Tereshenko vs. Wright/Kovalova
Johnson/Waters vs. McGuffin/Stratman
Waters/Waters vs. Tereshenko/Stratman
So yes, there’s likely a “small sample size” issue here.
I tabulated shot shot that resulted in a winning point. Then, I summarized all points from the match, and created a “Pace” metric that assigns a value of “2” to points that end after 1-6 shot, “1” to points that end after 7-12 shots, and “0” to points that end after 13+ shots. “Pace” helps us see what the tempo of the points are … are the points grinding (value 0-1.1ish), or are the points ending quickly (value 1.3+).
Here’s what I learned across the four matches.
The Warnick/Burrows vs. Wright/Newman sets the tone for high-paced points, with Wright/Newman winning 61% of their points within six shots. Only about 10% of the total points were won via grinding out points via dinking. Wright/Newman outperformed Warnick/Burrows by a 61%-56% (41-34) margin on winning points within six shots.
Wright/Kovalova easily won their match, with both teams scoring similar percentage of points by 1-6 shots, 7-12 shots, and 13+ shots.
Johnson/Waters easily won their match, but Johnson/Waters dominated short rallies (42%-32%) and long rallies (36%-27%).
The Women’s match was dominated by the Waters. The Waters dominated short rallies (34%-20%), while Tereshenko/Stratman had a bigger share of winners from long rallies … unfortunately, the Waters even outscored them on long rallies (10 winners to 8).
Let’s sum up the totals for all four matches.
Points Won Within Six Shots: Winning Teams = 24 Points Average. Losing Teams = 16 Points Average.
Points Won 7-12 Shots: Winning Teams = 15 Points Average. Losing Teams = 13 Points Average.
Points Won 13+ Shots: Winning Teams = 10 Points Average. Losing Teams = 6 Points Average.
Winning teams in the four games I tabulated results for had an eight point edge on winning points in the first six shots, a 2 point advantage winning points on shots 7-12, and a 4 point advantage winning points on shots 13+.
The “Six Shot Rule” is pretty darn important. The first six points include challenging serves, attacking second shots, an increasing mix of third shot drives in 2022, and attacks on 4th/5th/6th shots. If the point isn’t won by the sixth point, the flow of the game settles into a dinking rally, on average.
One final point … look at the “Pace” metric I created … what do you see for Stratman/Tereshenko? Neither player was able to generate enough offense early in a point, meaning they had to grind if they were going to win points. I’m not saying this is bad … this may have been their only chance to win. But offense/pressure are the theme of 2022, and Stratman/Tereshenko struggled to generate offense/pressure against the Waters.
Pickleball Analytics! 