3rd Shot / 5th Shot

Our study tonight comes to us courtesy of the Auvergne/Stone vs. Wilson/Bright matchup on Pickleball Night in America (click here). Watch the first match, ok?

In this match, I charted shot selection on 3rd shot / 5th shot combinations. Here is the outcome of the analysis – discussion follows.

In the match, nearly 75% of 3rd shots were drops, with about 25% being drives.

Let’s evaluate drop shots. If one of the four players hit a 3rd shot drop, there were possible 5th shots.

• Drop / Blank = There was no 5th shot, either the 3rd shot was errant or was a winner, or the 4th shot was errant or a winner.
• Drop / Drop = 3rd shot drop, then from mid-back court a 5th shot drop was attempted.
• Drop / Dink = Successful 3rd shot drop, yielding a 5th shot dink.
• Drop / Drive = After 3rd shot drop, the 5th shot was an attack shot off of a high 4th shot.
• Drop / Block-Dig = 3rd shot drop, then a very defensive 5th shot from mid-back court (or being tagged by a 4th shot forcing a block).

Obviously a good outcome (other than hitting a 3rd shot drop winner, which is nearly impossible at the pro level) is to achieve a Drop / Dink outcome. This happened just 16 times out of 68 drops.

Another good outcome is to achieve a Drop / Drive outcome (suggesting the 4th shot was high). This happened 22 times out of 68 drop shots.

Both of those outcomes represent a reasonable outcome … happening 38 out of 68 times.

Hitting a 5th shot drop isn’t a bad outcome, but it is more defensive. That happened 11 times out of 68.

3rd Shot Drop / 5th Shot Block-Dig happened 10 times out of 68. This is a poor outcome.

I was very surprised by the amount of attacking done off of 3rd shot drops … 32% of the time the 3rd shot drop was followed by an attack. The attack was usually initiated (though not always) but the player NOT hitting the drop shot. This player cheats up toward the kitchen, looking to pounce on opportunities.

Here’s the series of outcomes off of 3rd shot drives.

• 3rd Shot Drive / No 5th Shot = 8 out of 23 drives. Either the 3rd shot drive resulted in an error, or it resulted in a winner, or it resulted in a 4th shot error. 35% of 3rd shot drives ended quickly.
• 3rd Shot Drive / 5th Shot Dink = 3 out of 23 drives. This is a good outcome.
• 3rd Shot Drive / 5th Shot Drop = 3 out of 23 drives. This is a reasonable outcome.
• 3rd Shot Drive / 5th Shot Drive = 6 out of 23 drives. This is “attack mode”, mostly initiated by attacks from the player hitting the 3rd Shot Drive.
• 3rd Shot Drive / 5th Shot Block-Dig = 3 out of 23 drives. This is not a great outcome … typically the 4th shot is a block that points at the feet of one of the members of the serving team.

Among 3rd shot drop points that reached a 5th shot, 27% were drop/dink, 19% were drop/drop, 37% were drop/drive, and 17% were drop/block-dig.

Among 3rd shot drive points that reached a 5th shot, 20% were drive/dink, 20% were drive/drop, 40% were drive/drive, and 20% were drive/block-dig.

The percentages were really similar for 5th shots contingent on 3rd shot choice. About 4 times in 10 the team attempting the 3rd shot is able to generate offense on the 5th shot. That’s something I wasn’t expecting … I didn’t expect that much offense off of a 3rd shot (especially a drop).

Granted, this is a one-match sample dependent upon the players participating. Regardless, the data suggest an opportunity for us rec players to carefully generate offense off of high balls on 4th shots.