3rd Shot Importance: Desert Ridge

I charted the five-game PPA thriller at Desert Ridge, featuring Callie Smith / Lucy Kovalova vs. Jessie Irvine / Catherine Parenteau.

Specifically, I recorded shot selection (Drop, Drip, Drive) … a drip being a drop shot that is essentially chest/shoulder height, allowing the opposition to play offense off of the shot. I charted whether the team hitting the third shot won the point. I charted what I call “Error Rate” … simply defined as the percentage of third shots that were out, hit the net, or were drips.

Here are the results from the five-game match:

Look at Callie/Lucy’s data. Lucy rarely saw second shots hit to her. It was Callie’s job to set the tempo when her team served. She mixed drives with drop shots, and as the match progressed she shifted away from drives toward drop shots. Callie’s error rate was 19%, about the average for the match. However, Callie hits a lot of drives. Her drop shots occasionally became drips, so she offsets her error rate by hitting accurate drives.

Lucy never got the ball, did she? If she got the ball, 90% of her third shots were drives.

Lucy and Callie scored points 46% of the time off of third shots.

Jessie/Catherine had a different outcome. Jessie was targeted, especially early in the match. Eventually Callie/Lucy figured out that Catherine wasn’t having the best day. They began to target Catherine in the fourth and fifth games of the match.

When Jessie controlled the third shot, Jessie/Catherine scored points 57% of the time.

When Catherine controlled the third shot, Jessie/Catherine scored points 27% of the time. This was driven in part by the fact that Catherine had a 27% error rate on third shots (27% of the shots hit the net, went out, or were drips that could be attacked) whereas Jessie had a 16% error rate on third shots.

The shift in strategy (from hitting second shots to Jessie to hitting second shots to Catherine) paid off, as Callie/Lucy took home the title in Phoenix.

Chart the outcome of your third shots. Second shots and third shots represent opportunities to control the point. The pros actively target players and adjust strategy as the match progresses.